Now is the time

by Norman A. Bailey

As the Marxists say, the "correlation of forces" is more favorable to The United States and its hemispheric allies than at any time in recent years. Let's see:

Hugo Chavez is on the defensive on all fronts. He lost the constitutional referendum and was rendered ridiculous by his failed FARC hostage rescue attempt and by is ludicrous effort to mobilize the decrepit Venezuelan army on behalf of Ecuador in its dispute with Colombia. Crime is rampant, inflation is the highest in the hemisphere, shortages are everywhere and PDVSA is bankrupt and disintegrating.

Evo Morales cannot get a new constitution adopted by the constitutional process and is in constant danger of a secession of half the provinces of Bolivia.

Daniel Ortega, the minority president of Nicaragua, cannot get anything through an opposition-controlled Congress and faces a constantly-falling popularity rating.

Last but not least, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner since her election has faced one crisis after another, beginning with the Antonini Wilson affair and culminating with the rural strike and hordes of pot-bangers in the streets for the first time since de la Rua was overthrown in December 2001.


Only Rafael Correa of Ecuador looks relatively solid at this time.

In contrast, Calderon of Mexico and Uribe of Colombia are doing exceptionally well and the social democrats,
headed by Bachelet of Chile, Vazquez of Uruguay and Lula of Brazil are edging towards the camp of the liberals and away from the neo-populists.

The incontestable revelations from the Reyes tapes and other sources that Chavez has been actively supporting the FARC for years has placed the US administration in a serious dilemma: whether to declare Venezuela (and Ecuador, where it was revealed FARC participated in financing Correa's elections campaign?) a state sponsor of terrorism. the US government has three choices:

1. Do nothing and look weak and spineless.
2. Declare Venezuela a state sponsor of terrorism and apply the accompanying sanctions, while excluding oil (even Iran can export pistachios and rugs to the US--a Clinton administration concession) and look ridiculous.
3. Declare Venezuela a state sponsor of terrorism and apply all sactions, including a boycott of Venezuelan oil and risk a huge jump in the oil price and a deepening of the domestic recession.

There is a way out of this dilemma. Declare Venezuela a state sponsor of terrorism, apply all sanctions and simultaneously declare that 1,400,000 bbl/day of crude from the Strategec Petroleum Reserve (SPRO) will be released to the market for the indefinite future, the amount now imported from Venezuela. The market would be stabilized and the Venezuelan regime totally destabilized immediately, since unlike Iran, which exports oil to other market or North Korea which exports nothing, Venezuela is almost entirely dependent on the U.S. market for its heavy, sour crude. This is where the refineries that can handle such crude are. Nowhere else.

After all, destabilizing governments of countries which are state sponsors of terrorism is the purpose of the whole exercise, isn't it?